HypothesesThe Great Completion Window, 1865–1915

Hypothesis #2 of 20

The Great Completion Window, 1865–1915

Strong124 supporting entries

Strength is how much of our gathered material lines up with the pattern. It is not the odds that the idea is true.

The working idea

Most of the grand stone buildings in our collection are put on the record as finished inside one 50-year window, on every continent at the same time. Common sense says a world that had never built like this before doesn't suddenly finish capitols, opera houses, stations and city halls from Texas to Kuala Lumpur in the same few decades. One possibility is that much of this was older building stock that got new paperwork, new names and new 'completion' dates in that window.

Strongest examples

Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj TerminusA Gothic stone palace in Mumbai dated 1878–88, the same decade as Gothic courts in London and Brussels.

Sultan Abdul Samad BuildingDomed block in Kuala Lumpur dated 1894–97, about three years.

Teatro AmazonasOpera house deep in the Amazon dated 1884–96, of imported European materials.

Union BuildingsLong sandstone wings in Pretoria dated 1910–13.

The evidence

Non-fort Old World buildings whose dated range ends 1865–1915

124 of 165 (75%)

124 entries

Regions represented in that window

9 regions: US 65, Europe 26, Latin America 6, India 5, Australia/NZ 5, Africa 5, Asia 5, Russia 4, Canada 3

Completions per 5-year bin (non-fort)

1760–1764: 1, 1775–1779: 1, 1795–1799: 1, 1810–1814: 1, 1815–1819: 1, 1825–1829: 1, 1840–1844: 1, 1850–1854: 2, 1855–1859: 6, 1860–1864: 3, 1865–1869: 6, 1870–1874: 4, 1875–1879: 15, 1880–1884: 13, 1885–1889: 12, 1890–1894: 12, 1895–1899: 15, 1900–1904: 12, 1905–1909: 14, 1910–1914: 16, 1915–1919: 11, 1920–1924: 4, 1925–1929: 7, 1930–1934: 5, 1935–1939: 1

Every bin from 1875 to 1919 has 11–16 completions; no bin before 1855 or after 1934 has more than 7.

Buildings 'completed' 1880–1910 by region

81 total: US 42, Europe 15, Australia/NZ 5, Latin America 4, India 3, Canada 3, Russia 3, Africa 3, Asia 3

Open questions

Why do almost no buildings of this size get 'completed' in the 1820s–40s, then dozens per decade from the 1870s?
Do original drawings and quarry contracts exist for the earliest years of each range, or only for the finishing years?
How many of these were 'completed' within ten years of a fire, war or occupation in the same city?

What would support it

Older photos, maps or paintings showing any of these buildings before their recorded start year.
Records that describe 'completion' as refitting, re-roofing or refacing rather than building from the ground.
Foundation or mortar dating that comes out older than the recorded start.

What would rule it out

Dated construction photos for a large share of these from foundations upward.
Full sets of contracts, payrolls and quarry ledgers covering the start years.
A wider, unbiased sample (all public buildings over a set size) that shows a smooth rise instead of a burst. Our collection was picked for grandeur, which on its own makes the 1865–1915 bump look bigger.

Selection bias

High: buildings were chosen because they are grand, famous, and featured by Old World researchers, which favours the Victorian/Beaux-Arts era.

The rating counts how much of our gathered material lines up with the pattern. It is not a probability that the hypothesis is true, and every count is limited by which buildings were picked for the app (see 'selectionBias' on each card).

Next hypothesis

Strong111 entries#3One template, every continentThe same domes, the same Kirkbride layout, the same Garnier opera house and the same star-shaped fort turn up on every inhabited continent, often in the same decades and often openly called copies. Common sense says that in an age of letters and steamships, a style doesn't normally spread to Manaus, Hanoi, Durban and Winnipeg at once. One possibility is a shared source: a common building tradition or pattern-book much older than the names now attached to it.

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